Europe at a Crossroads: Preparing for a Post-American Era in Ukraine's Defense

As the political landscape shifts in the United States, European nations are at a crossroads. As Donald Trump’s return to the White House, looms over the country and the global community, Europe must confront the sobering reality: the end of America’s unwavering support for Ukraine may be coming to a halt in the very near future. 

Trump’s past statements and reported communications with Russian President Vladimir Putin allude to the future president’s intentions. The president-elect seems eager to extricate the United States from its role in the Ukraine conflict as swiftly as possible. This potential (and very likely) shift in U.S. foreign policy has beckoned European leaders to reassess their strategies, commitments, and involvements. 

“The first victim of Donald Trump’s second term as US president is likely to be Ukraine. The only people who can avert that disaster are us Europeans, yet our continent is in disarray.” warns British historian, author, and commentator, Timothy Garten Ash. “We have two months until Trump’s inauguration on 20 January to come up with a better answer. We must.”

The challenges facing Europe are significant and quickly approaching. While the continent possesses considerable economic and technological resources, its defense capabilities have long relied on steady American leadership and support. The reluctant approach to military hardware and underinvestment in logistics have left Europe ill-prepared for sustained conflict. 

However, there are signs of progress. The acquisition of advanced F-35 fighters by several European nations demonstrates a commitment to modernizing air forces  - should worst come to worst. However, it's important to note that the hardware and technology alone, will not be enough. It’s imperative that Europe - meaning the democratic countries enmeshed in institutions such as NATO and the European Union - must create a cohesive strategy and muster the will to act. 

F-35 fighters via. The National Interest

Financial commitments remain a sticking point. Despite pledges to increase defense spending, many NATO members still fall short of the agreed 2% of GDP target - a target that was set in more peaceful times. However, given the current conflict, it is somewhat obvious that the target will need to be raised. Thus if Europe seeks to preserve unity and peace, they must be prepared to invest significantly more in their security. 

The path forward is not without obstacles. Political instability in key nations like Germany - Scholz’s government appears on the verge of collapse and even if it survives, it likely lacks the boldness to move decisively to help Ukraine -  and differing priorities among EU members inhibit coordinated action. Yet, the situation's urgency will hopefully catalyze quicker change and coordinated initiatives. The continent, in more recent times, suffers from a collective-action problem. French President Emmanuel Macron asked just last week, “The question we, as Europeans, must ask ourselves, is: Are we ready to defend the interests of Europeans?” Detractors might ask why he is raising the issue only now. And yet regardless of his motives, the message remains resonant. The time is now. 

French President Emmanuel Macron via. CNN

After decades of expecting the United States to act wisely and forcefully in defense of the broader democratic world, Europe needs to start thinking and acting on its own and for its own interests. Trump’s return means that things previously inconceivable must be faced. And in the case of Ukraine, a new Europe can be born in response to the impending change, no matter the degree. 

Sources: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Hbrlg8lGch2bqH1jy8Ge7mxY0ps6PpAFsMyRxvsn0mM/edit?usp=sharing