National Security Council: The Case For Calculated Strategic Clarity

Mr. President, as I’m sure you’re already aware, the U.S. plays a central role in maintaining the intricate balance across the Taiwan Strait. Our policy of “strategic ambiguity,” first articulated through the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, commits to providing Taiwan with defensive arms without explicitly guaranteeing intervention in the event of Chinese aggression. 

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi poses with Taiwan's President Tsai at the president's office on August 3, 2022 via. Council on Foreign Relations

While supporters of this policy argue it has the potential to both deter Chinese aggression and advance Taiwanese independence, critics highlight the risks of miscalculation. Experts in this field, such as Richard Haas and David Sacks, argue for “strategic clarity,” which is essentially the opposite approach of our current policy. They argue that “strategic clarity” will both explicitly warn China against aggression and bolster deterrence, providing assurance to U.S. allies. 

I believe the true solution lies in “calculated strategic clarity,” balancing the best elements of both sides. This policy would explicitly warn Beijing against military operations while affirming that the U.S. still does not support Taiwan’s declaration of independence. The four key elements of my proposed strategy can be divided into enhanced military deterrence, strengthened diplomatic engagement, economic measures, and regional alliances. 

To expand upon the first, the U.S. should continue to bolster Taiwan’s defenses through joint military exercises and arms sales. Investments into other capabilities, such as cybersecurity and a missile defense system, could further allow Taiwan to withstand potential Chinese aggression. This aspect of our strategy aligns closely with the current policy. 

Elaborating upon the “strengthened diplomatic engagement” aspect, Washington should deepen its ties with Taiwan while maintaining the “One China” policy. By promoting Taiwan’s participation in organizations like the World Health Organization (WHO), the U.S. can help support Taipei’s global presence and hopefully support it without stepping on Beijing’s red lines. 

China-Taiwan Map with Regional Allies via BBC.

To expand more clearly upon the regional alliances and economic measures, the U.S. must work with allies like Japan and Australia to develop a coordinated response to Chinese provocations. Japan’s framing of Taiwan as integral to its national security and Australia’s commitment to join U.S. defense efforts signal the potential for a strong coalition. Additionally, Taiwanese economic resilience is critical to this conflict. The U.S. and its allies should promote trade agreements and supply chain diversification to reduce Taiwan’s economic reliance on China and mitigate Beijing's leverage.

While Taiwan seeks to preserve its independence and democratic identity, Beijing’s assertiveness continues to challenge maintaining the status quo. The U.S. lies somewhere in between these two forces, and I believe the responsibility and ability to maintain peace rests upon our shoulders. By adopting my “calculated” strategic clarity approach, I believe we can do both. 

Thank you.

Sources:

Brookings: Does the United States need to update its Taiwan policy?

Council on Foreign Relations: Why China-Taiwan Relations Are So Tense

Foreign Affairs Magazine: The Growing Danger of U.S. Ambiguity on Taiwan